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Back in the start of the year, with Donald Trump’s election vows to end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours” remaining vivid in memory, there was real concern in the Russian capital over the US leader’s plans. When Mr. Trump suggested that significant levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Restrictions” on Russia might be required, one prominent hawkish Russian commentator remarked: “It is better to get ready for the worst. Before long, we’ll reflect on the previous term with nostalgia, like a thaw.”

Unfulfilled Threats and Missed Chances

How mistaken was that view? From then, the US president has repeatedly spoken the talk without managing to following the walk. By May, when Vladimir Putin rejected a month-long ceasefire, and negotiation talks in Turkey went nowhere, a “bone-crushing US sanctions package failed to materialise. An early August cut-off for Mr Putin to consent to a halt in fighting somehow turned into a red carpet welcome in Alaska, where Mr Trump applauded a figure wanted for war crimes as he disembarked from his plane. The serious consequences” warned of by Mr Trump if the Alaska talks did not lead to peace did not happened.

Encouraged Moves and Allied Weaknesses

Empowered, Mr Putin has accordingly continued to pursue his war aims in Ukraine, and test for western weaknesses. The previous week’s incursion of Russian drones into Polish territory exposed inadequate Nato planning, as F-35 and F-16 fighter jets were quickly scrambled to counter cheap kamikaze devices that cost around $10,000 each to produce. It also sent a warning of possible escalation if any future “deterrence force” deploying European troops on Ukrainian soil. This kind of challenge called for a strong and coordinated response, exerting the kind of pressure on the Kremlin which Mr Trump has so far refused to countenance. Instead the US president appears, once again, to prefer pressuring his European allies to targeting Mr Putin. In a statement which reeked of bad faith, Mr Trump stated over the weekend that the US was “prepared” to impose stricter sanctions on Russia, but only if certain unlikely conditions were met.

Impractical Requirements and Trade Pressures

Aiming for a significant economic gain, Washington is demanding that the EU must boost its imports of US LNG at a rate that analysts judge unachievable. Other stipulations include the application by the EU of 50%-100% tariffs on Russia’s most important ally, China, and an end to all imports of Russian oil by Nato members. This includes Turkey, which has declined to sanction Moscow, imports 57% of its oil from Russia, and lies outside the EU.

Those looking on the positive side in Brussels believe that Mr Trump’s pressure may persuade pro-Trump governments in Hungary and Slovakia to end their heavy dependence on Russian energy imports. That is extremely unlikely to happen, as Mr Trump and his advisers must know. Nor can the EU afford to risk the kind of economic response from Beijing that caused Mr Trump himself to back down from a full-blown trade war recently.

Ominous Events and Absence of Action

During this week’s state visit, it will be Sir Keir Starmer’s turn to try to pin Mr Trump down on decisive action. But from the fruitless Alaska talks to his latest diversionary tactics with the EU, Mr Trump keeps finding reasons not to get tough on Russia. Last week’s drone incursion in Poland represented an ominous raising of the ante. Ukraine’s prospects, and wider European security interests, are being gradually undermined by a president who, in this context, barks but never acts.